Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Why do CURRENCY values change?

So why do currency values change?


There are three apparent reasons for this.

1. Currencies react to political and economic news. The #Brexit issue is the most recent political mania. Such issue is affecting the currencies specifically pound. In my recent blogpost I showed the immediate effect of votation. Please scroll down to the previous posts to check it.

2. Speculators drive the market such as the technical analysts who takes advantage of either bearish or bullish market.

3. Of course there's the international business flows. The law of supply and demand affects the currency fluctuation. For instance, oil drives the market fluctuation. 




Tuesday, June 28, 2016

What is a FOREX Spread?

A SPREAD in Forex Trading is the difference between the bid and the ask price. Otherwise knows as the variance between the buying and selling prices. Normally, the proceeds go to the broker/specialist that handles the transaction.

So what is a bid and ask price?
Selling price is the BID price and buying price is the ASK price.

Let's look at below image:
We have here an example of AUDUSD, below the currency name you will see that the spread is 16. Such is the difference between 0.74017, the selling price and 0.74033, the buying price.

Note that the closer the spread to zero means the better it will be to trade because reaching break-even point is not going to be very difficult to achieve.

Find out more on how to understand FOREX market, visit us at www.forexcebu.com

Friday, June 24, 2016

#Brexit Mania!

Today, hot as pancake, in the news UK speak up! UK voted to leave European Union in landmark referendum.

The news is followed by UK Prime Minister David Cameron to step down his post.

So what's the effect of this scenario to the big 5 currencies? Let's take a look one by one.

USDCHF 
Hi: 0.9800
Lo: 0.9531
Variance: 269 pips

AUDUSD
Hi: 0.7644
Lo: 0.7300
Variance: 344 pips


USDJPY 
Hi: 106.79
Lo: 98.92
Variance: 787 pips


EURUSD 
Hi: 1.1425
Lo: 1.0909
Variance: 516 pips

GBPUSD 
Hi: 1.5015
Lo: 1.3223
Variance: 1,792 pips

Today we had extreme movements of the market. Since 1985, UK touched an ultime low. It seems to be finding a good bouncing point towards a potential ultime high. My bet is next year the soonest.

Happy trading everyone!


Sunday, November 1, 2015

Weekly wrap from Briefing.com

Dow -92.26 at 17663.54, Nasdaq -20.53 at 5053.75, S&P -10.05 at 2079.36
The stock market ended the week on a lower note, but that did not stop the S&P 500 from posting its largest monthly gain since October 2011. The benchmark index lost 0.5% on Friday, but surged 8.3% for the month while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) outperformed, spiking 9.4% in October.
Broadly speaking, the Friday session was very quiet with the market showing a modest loss during morning action, which turned into a slim afternoon gain; however, a late slide from session highs ensured a lower finish for the S&P 500.
Despite the lower finish, only five of ten sectors posted losses, but relative weakness in heavily-weighted groups like financials (-1.3%), technology (-0.8%), and consumer staples (-1.1%) was enough to keep the market pressured.
The financial sector retreated throughout the day, narrowing its October gain to 6.1%. Meanwhile, the top-weighted technology space (-0.8%) also underperformed, but the influential sector surged 10.7% in October. Large cap names like Apple (AAPL 119.50, -1.03), Google (GOOGL 737.39, -7.46), and Microsoft (MSFT 52.64, -0.72) struggled on Friday, masking relative strength in the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which rose 0.9%. ON Semiconductor (ON 11.00, +0.72) was a notable standout, soaring 7.0%, in reaction to better than expected results.
Elsewhere, the consumer staples sector (-1.1%) retreated amid disappointing earnings and/or guidance from Colgate-Palmolive (CL 66.35, -2.88), CVS Health (CVS 98.78, -5.02), and Boston Beer (SAM 219.42, -25.52). The three names lost between 4.2% and 10.4% while the broader sector narrowed its October gain to 5.6%.
On the flip side, the energy sector (+0.7%) finished in the lead after struggling at the start. However, the sector climbed during the afternoon to extend its October gain to 11.3%. Crude oil contributed to the afternoon rally as WTI crude rose 1.2% to $46.60/bbl while earnings also played a part. To that point, Chevron (CVX 90.88, +0.99), ExxonMobil (XOM 82.74, +0.51), and Phillips 66 (PSX 89.10, +2.67) all delivered better than expected results.
Unlike stocks, Treasuries spent the bulk of the day in the green with the 10-yr yield slipping three basis points to 2.15%.
Today's participation was ahead of average with more than a billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor with month-end flows contributing to the increased activity.
Economic data included Employment Cost Index, Personal Income/Spending data, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment:
  • Employment costs increased 0.6% in Q3 2015, up from a 0.2% increase in the second quarter while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
    • Despite the big quarterly gain, year-over-year trends were unchanged with total compensation increasing only 2.0% in the third quarter, which matched the rate of increase from the second quarter
  • Personal income increased 0.1% in September after increasing an upwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.3%) in August while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2%
    • Personal spending rose 0.1% in September after increasing 0.4% in August while the consensus expected an increase of 0.2%
  • The Chicago PMI increased to 56.2 in October from 48.7 in September while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 49.0
    • That was the best reading in the Chicago PMI since reaching 59.4 in January
    • The Production Index increased to 63.4 in October from 43.6 in September, representing the largest one-month gain since August 2014
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down to 90.0 in the final October reading from 92.1 in the preliminary report while the Briefing.com consensus expected a revision up to 92.6
    • Despite the downward revision, sentiment remains stronger than the final September (87.2) level
    • The Current Conditions Index was revised down to 102.3 in the final October reading from 106.7 while the Expectations Index was revised down to 82.1 from 82.7
Monday's economic data will be limited to the 10:00 ET release of September Construction Spending and the October ISM Index.
Week in Review: Stocks Register Fifth Consecutive Weekly Gain
The stock market began the week on a quiet note with the S&P 500 (-0.2%) spending the session inside a nine-point range. The benchmark index settled right above the midpoint of that range while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) outperformed throughout the session. Generally speaking, the Monday affair was very quiet and free of noteworthy earnings. Accordingly, the benchmark index opened with a two-point loss and traded in sideways fashion until the closing bell. Seven sectors registered losses between 0.2% (consumer staples and industrials) and 2.5% (energy) while consumer discretionary (+0.8%), health care (+0.5%), and telecom services (+0.1%) outperformed.
The market endured its second consecutive retreat on Tuesday, but the overall trading dynamic was very similar to the range-bound affair from Monday. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) outperformed throughout the session. In some ways, the cautious posture was not all that shocking considering investors were on hold ahead of Wednesday's release of the October FOMC policy directive from the FOMC. Nine sectors ended the Tuesday affair in negative territory with cyclical groups showing relative weakness across the board. The energy sector (-1.2%) spent its second consecutive day behind the remaining nine groups as lower oil prices weighed. To that point, WTI crude fell 1.8% to $43.22/bbl. Similar to energy, the industrial sector (-1.0%) surrendered close to 1.0% while the remaining cyclical sectors posted slimmer losses.
Equity indices snapped their two-day skid on Wednesday, but not before seeing some intraday volatility. The S&P 500 added 1.2% while the Russell 2000 (+2.9%) outperformed. The key indices rallied out of the gate in response to a batch of mostly better than expected earnings. That lengthy list was headlined by Apple (AAPL 119.28, +4.73) with the top-weighted stock spiking 4.1% in reaction to better than expected earnings and revenue. For its part, the broader technology sector (+1.5%) settled ahead of the broader market while most other cyclical sectors also showed relative strength. None more so than the energy space (+2.2%), which spent the day in the lead after struggling over the past two days. After rallying through the first two hours of the session, the market hovered near its high until the 14:00 ET release of the latest policy statement from the Federal Reserve, which called for no change to the current policy stance. That being said, the Federal Reserve took out a key line from its statement, which referred to global developments having the potential to restrain economic growth in the U.S. With that line being left out of the October statement, the Fed has opened the door to a potential rate hike in December.
The stock market spun its wheels through the bulk of the Thursday affair, but a final-hour charge helped the S&P 500 end little changed while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) underperformed throughout the session. Equities followed Wednesday's roller-coaster ride with a range-bound Thursday session that saw weakness in heavily-weighted cyclical sectors while health care (+0.5%) surrendered the bulk of its gain into the close; however, the market maintained its range through the afternoon as technology (-0.3%) cut its opening loss in half while energy (+0.5%) and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) outperformed. Most notably, the technology sector struggled from the start and the bulk of its weakness could be found in the semiconductor group where NXP Semiconductor (NXPI 73.00, -17.92) plunged 19.7% after below-consensus revenue and concerns about the company's inventories overshadowed a bottom-line beat and an expanded share buyback. Also of note, STMicroelectronics (STM 6.79, -0.42) fell 5.8% after issuing disappointing guidance and denying interest in Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS 16.56, -0.99).

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Forex Space Ride

It was a hell of a roller-coaster ride last night after FED announced it's IRD (Interest Rate Decision) unchanged at 0.25%.

Two hours after that, the RBNZ released its own IRD that remains unchanged at 2.75%

EURUSD crashes to two-month low, amid hawkish comments from FOMC.  The FED sent strong indications that a rate hike will be on the table in mid-December when it meets next after a break next month. The hawkish stance sent the euro tumbling against the dollar, as it fell below 1.09 for the firt time since early August.  EURUSD traded in a broad range between 1.0897 and 1.1095, before settling at 1.0924, down by 120pips on the session.  The euro has now closed lower against the dollar in five of the last seven sessions.

USDJPY slingshot took a dip at 119.99 and hit high of 121.24, weaker by 125pips.  After the RBNZ it settled back to 120 level while closing at 121.07.  Today market opened at 121.07 and is currently playing at 120.68




Among the currencies  NZDUSD also took a drop from .6744 to .6620, changed by 124 pips and heading towards .6500.  Further, the New Zealand dollar fell in early Asia today as the central bank held steady on rates as expected, but called for a weaker kiwi, while the dollar firmed on expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the end of the year.

Despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to hold the rates steady it jawboned the currency lower by stating that lower interest rates would be required if the exchange rate remains high.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

What Thursday may bring...

Today's major trades include the following currency pairs:

JPYUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD

I have always warned my Portfolio Managers to never trade on days where market expects data and seems like tomorrow we'll be playing safe again. In the US Market there's the FOMC Statment and FED Interest Rate Decision to make while another Interest Rate Decision for RBNZ.

Here's a cut of what to expect then:

From Kathy Lien:
New Zealand dollar traders, on the other hand, are positioned for optimism from the Reserve Bank. Taking a look at the table below, there’s been widespread improvement in New Zealand’s economy since the September monetary-policy meeting. 

Manufacturing- and service-sector activity increased, business confidence improved, dairy prices rebounded, housing activity remains strong and consumers turned positive on the economy in October. 

The RBNZ has many reasons to be encouraged by these recent developments but the slowdown in China and the rapid appreciation in the currency is a big problem that could threaten their recovery. In the past month, NZD/USD has risen from a low of 0.6250 to 69 cents while AUD/NZDhas fallen from a high of 1.1350 to a low of 1.0575. 

If the RBNZ only talked of the improvements in the economy, it risks sending NZD even higher. After lowering rates 3 meetings in a row in September, Governor Wheeler warned that, “some further easing in the official cash rate seems likely.” While there is no need to cut again in October, the rise in the New Zealand dollar should encourage the central bank to repeat this guidance.



Happy Trading!

Sunday, October 25, 2015

China: the sleeping giant

Certainly, China is marked on the market list. It's been an extreme market mover and now it's creating ripples in the early Asian Market.

I wouldn't want to see a new pair among the major currencies but if it's worth my two cents, why not!

The dollar received an additional boost after China’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates on Friday. It was the sixth rate cut since last November, amid efforts by authorities to shore up slowing growth in the world’s second largest economy.

On Monday, in the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release data on new home sales.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve for fresh indications on the timing of an initial rate hike.