Tuesday, October 27, 2015

What Thursday may bring...

Today's major trades include the following currency pairs:

JPYUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD

I have always warned my Portfolio Managers to never trade on days where market expects data and seems like tomorrow we'll be playing safe again. In the US Market there's the FOMC Statment and FED Interest Rate Decision to make while another Interest Rate Decision for RBNZ.

Here's a cut of what to expect then:

From Kathy Lien:
New Zealand dollar traders, on the other hand, are positioned for optimism from the Reserve Bank. Taking a look at the table below, there’s been widespread improvement in New Zealand’s economy since the September monetary-policy meeting. 

Manufacturing- and service-sector activity increased, business confidence improved, dairy prices rebounded, housing activity remains strong and consumers turned positive on the economy in October. 

The RBNZ has many reasons to be encouraged by these recent developments but the slowdown in China and the rapid appreciation in the currency is a big problem that could threaten their recovery. In the past month, NZD/USD has risen from a low of 0.6250 to 69 cents while AUD/NZDhas fallen from a high of 1.1350 to a low of 1.0575. 

If the RBNZ only talked of the improvements in the economy, it risks sending NZD even higher. After lowering rates 3 meetings in a row in September, Governor Wheeler warned that, “some further easing in the official cash rate seems likely.” While there is no need to cut again in October, the rise in the New Zealand dollar should encourage the central bank to repeat this guidance.



Happy Trading!

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