- Employment costs increased 0.6% in Q3 2015, up from a 0.2% increase in the second quarter while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
- Despite the big quarterly gain, year-over-year trends were unchanged with total compensation increasing only 2.0% in the third quarter, which matched the rate of increase from the second quarter
- Personal income increased 0.1% in September after increasing an upwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.3%) in August while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2%
- Personal spending rose 0.1% in September after increasing 0.4% in August while the consensus expected an increase of 0.2%
- The Chicago PMI increased to 56.2 in October from 48.7 in September while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 49.0
- That was the best reading in the Chicago PMI since reaching 59.4 in January
- The Production Index increased to 63.4 in October from 43.6 in September, representing the largest one-month gain since August 2014
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down to 90.0 in the final October reading from 92.1 in the preliminary report while the Briefing.com consensus expected a revision up to 92.6
- Despite the downward revision, sentiment remains stronger than the final September (87.2) level
- The Current Conditions Index was revised down to 102.3 in the final October reading from 106.7 while the Expectations Index was revised down to 82.1 from 82.7
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Weekly wrap from Briefing.com
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Forex Space Ride
Two hours after that, the RBNZ released its own IRD that remains unchanged at 2.75%
EURUSD crashes to two-month low, amid hawkish comments from FOMC. The FED sent strong indications that a rate hike will be on the table in mid-December when it meets next after a break next month. The hawkish stance sent the euro tumbling against the dollar, as it fell below 1.09 for the firt time since early August. EURUSD traded in a broad range between 1.0897 and 1.1095, before settling at 1.0924, down by 120pips on the session. The euro has now closed lower against the dollar in five of the last seven sessions.
USDJPY slingshot took a dip at 119.99 and hit high of 121.24, weaker by 125pips. After the RBNZ it settled back to 120 level while closing at 121.07. Today market opened at 121.07 and is currently playing at 120.68
Among the currencies NZDUSD also took a drop from .6744 to .6620, changed by 124 pips and heading towards .6500. Further, the New Zealand dollar fell in early Asia today as the central bank held steady on rates as expected, but called for a weaker kiwi, while the dollar firmed on expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the end of the year.
Despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to hold the rates steady it jawboned the currency lower by stating that lower interest rates would be required if the exchange rate remains high.
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
What Thursday may bring...
JPYUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
I have always warned my Portfolio Managers to never trade on days where market expects data and seems like tomorrow we'll be playing safe again. In the US Market there's the FOMC Statment and FED Interest Rate Decision to make while another Interest Rate Decision for RBNZ.
Here's a cut of what to expect then:
Manufacturing- and service-sector activity increased, business confidence improved, dairy prices rebounded, housing activity remains strong and consumers turned positive on the economy in October.
The RBNZ has many reasons to be encouraged by these recent developments but the slowdown in China and the rapid appreciation in the currency is a big problem that could threaten their recovery. In the past month, NZD/USD has risen from a low of 0.6250 to 69 cents while AUD/NZDhas fallen from a high of 1.1350 to a low of 1.0575.
If the RBNZ only talked of the improvements in the economy, it risks sending NZD even higher. After lowering rates 3 meetings in a row in September, Governor Wheeler warned that, “some further easing in the official cash rate seems likely.” While there is no need to cut again in October, the rise in the New Zealand dollar should encourage the central bank to repeat this guidance.
Sunday, October 25, 2015
China: the sleeping giant
Certainly, China is marked on the market list. It's been an extreme market mover and now it's creating ripples in the early Asian Market.
I wouldn't want to see a new pair among the major currencies but if it's worth my two cents, why not!
The dollar received an additional boost after China’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates on Friday. It was the sixth rate cut since last November, amid efforts by authorities to shore up slowing growth in the world’s second largest economy.
On Monday, in the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
The U.S. is to release data on new home sales.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve for fresh indications on the timing of an initial rate hike.
10/23 Has been an extreme market
Investing.com - The dollar strengthened broadly to two-month highs against the other major currencies on Friday, as a surprise rate cut in China dampened risk sentiment and the previous session's upbeat U.S. data continued to support the greenback.
The dollar was higher against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.33% at one-month highs of 121.10.
The greenback strengthened broadly after China's central bank cut interest rates for the sixth time since November in another attempt to boost the economy.
The dollar was also boosted after data on Thursday showed that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 17 increased by 3,000 to 259,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 9,000 to 265,000.
A separate report showed that U.S. existing home sales increased by 4.7% to 5.55 million units last month from 5.30 million in August, compared to expectations for a 1.4% rise.
The euro erased earlier gains and EUR/USDwas down 0.74% at two-month lows of 1.1022.
The single currency remained under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that the central bank will "reexamine" its monetary policy in December, hinting at the possibility for further easing measures.
Earlier Friday, research group Markit said that Germany's preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers' index ticked down to 51.6 this month from 52.3 in September, while the services PMI rose to 55.2 from 54.1.
In France, the preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 50.7 in October, Market reported, up from 50.6 the previous month, while the services PMI ticked up to 52.3 from 51.9.
For the entire euro zone, Markit said the composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and service sector activity, rose to 54.0 in October from 53.6 the previous month.
Elsewhere, the dollar was higher against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USDshedding 0.36% to 1.5337 and with USD/CHF advancing 0.40% to 0.9770.
The Australian dollar was higher, with AUD/USD up 0.18% at 0.7220, while NZD/USD dropped 0.65% to 0.6750.
USD/CAD gained 0.51% to trade at three-week highs of 1.3159.
Data earlier showed that Canada's consumer price index fell 0.2% in September, compared to expectations for a 0.1% downtick. Year-on-year, consumer prices rose 1.0% last month, disappointing expectations for a 1.1% increase.
Core CPI, which excludes the eight most volatile items, ticked up 0.2% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.3% gain.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.68% at 97.07, the highest level since August 19.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
10/21 USDJPY
Yellen speaks
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Connecting live to a broker is easier with technology
Forex Cebu goes blogging!
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Cheers to all forex traders and happy reading!
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